Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · CER3337875597272
Cerave Crème Contour des Yeux 14ml
midtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
2
new activity (no prior baseline)
Year-over-year
-84.6%
vs same 4w last year (13 units)
Current stock
0
depleted
Unit price
MAD 93
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-04-01
CER3337875597272
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 119 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Cerave Crème Contour des Yeux 14ml · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 2 units, new activity (no prior baseline) · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (1120 days of history, 101 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.82 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 2 units · prev 4w = 0 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 2.6 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 12.9 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 34.9 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 8.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 42.9 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 119.5 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.7 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 11.1K |