Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · CER3337875597210
Cerave Lait Hydratant Visage Corps 236ml
midtail
1P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
15
▲ 7.1% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+25.0%
vs same 4w last year (12 units)
Current stock
20
≈ 5.6 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 100
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-06
CER3337875597210
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 108 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Cerave Lait Hydratant Visage Corps 236ml · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 15 units, trending up +7.1% · on-hand 20 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (1183 days of history, 175 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.83 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 15 units · prev 4w = 14 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 3.4 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 14.2 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 39.3 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 7.7 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 36.7 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 107.7 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.0 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 10.8K |