Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · CER3337875597197
Cerave Gel Moussant Visage 236ml
midtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
7
new activity (no prior baseline)
Offer Stock
160
Σ Stock across 2 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-08-05 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 97
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-07-31
CER3337875597197
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 282 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Cerave Gel Moussant Visage 236ml · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 7 units, new activity (no prior baseline) · on-hand 218 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (1218 days of history, 73 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.86 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 7 units · prev 4w = 0 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 4.3 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 21.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 115.8 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 7.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 46.6 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 282.3 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 4.8 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 27.3K |