Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · C42808003071258463
C42808003071258463
midtail
3P
MAQUILLAGE VISAGE - CORPS
Last 4 weeks demand
14
▼ 22.2% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
56
Σ Stock across 3 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-14
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-10-14 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 91
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-10-10
C42808003071258463
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-10-05 · Total forecast: 114 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
C42808003071258463 · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 14 units, trending down -22.2% · on-hand 51 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (133 days of history, — units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.62 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 14 units · prev 4w = 18 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 3.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 13.3 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 36.8 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 17.2 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 8.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 30.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 114.2 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 4.0 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 10.4K |