Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · C40FB99005220853525
C40FB99005220853525
longtail
3P
MONTRE INTELLIGENTE - MONTRE CONNECTEE
Last 4 weeks demand
4
▲ 100.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
88
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-27
1P stock
88
≈ 102.7 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-27
Unit price
MAD 24
avg of last 12 sells · latest 2026-10-16
C40FB99005220853525
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-10-19 · Total forecast: 91 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
C40FB99005220853525 · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 4 units, trending up +100.0% · on-hand 88 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (91 days of history, — units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.38 — low
- Recent trend: last 4w = 4 units · prev 4w = 2 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.5 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 2.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 3.1 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 6.2 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 9.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 31.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 91.1 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | — |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 2.2K |