Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · C40FB99005200211657
C40FB99005200211657
longtail
3P
CONTENANT VIDE
Last 4 weeks demand
2
▼ 33.3% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
13
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-27
1P stock
13
≈ 14.1 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-27
Unit price
MAD 22
avg of last 9 sells · latest 2026-10-17
C40FB99005200211657
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-10-19 · Total forecast: 83 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
C40FB99005200211657 · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 2 units, trending down -33.3% · on-hand 13 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (84 days of history, — units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.73 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 2 units · prev 4w = 3 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 0.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 0.8 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 4.5 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 7.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 27.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 82.8 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | — |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.9K |