Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · C40FB84005200157099
C40FB84005200157099
longtail
1P
PISCINE - PLONGEE - CHASSE SOUS-MARINE
Last 4 weeks demand
2
▼ 33.3% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
13
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-27
1P stock
13
≈ 19.5 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-27
Unit price
MAD 18
avg of last 7 sells · latest 2026-10-24
C40FB84005200157099
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-10-19 · Total forecast: 87 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
C40FB84005200157099 · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 2 units, trending down -33.3% · on-hand 13 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (98 days of history, — units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.37 — low
- Recent trend: last 4w = 2 units · prev 4w = 3 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 0.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 0.7 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 4.2 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 7.1 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 27.1 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 86.8 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | — |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.6K |