Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · C40FB35107030348428
C40FB35107030348428
longtail
1P
NAIL ART
Last 4 weeks demand
3
new activity (no prior baseline)
Offer Stock
92
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-11-03
1P stock
92
≈ 80.5 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-11-03
Unit price
MAD 11
avg of last 7 sells · latest 2026-10-10
C40FB35107030348428
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-10-26 · Total forecast: 135 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
C40FB35107030348428 · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 3 units, new activity (no prior baseline) · on-hand 92 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (42 days of history, — units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.56 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 3 units · prev 4w = 0 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.5 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 0.9 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 4.5 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 4.1 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 7.6 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 34.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 134.6 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | — |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.4K |