Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · C40FB00406120946400
C40FB00406120946400
longtail
3P
ACCESSOIRES BAGAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
6
▲ 500.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
55
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-27
1P stock
55
≈ 30.0 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-27
Unit price
MAD 45
avg of last 5 sells · latest 2026-10-03
C40FB00406120946400
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-10-19 · Total forecast: 168 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
C40FB00406120946400 · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 6 units, trending up +500.0% · on-hand 55 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (35 days of history, — units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.69 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 6 units · prev 4w = 1 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 0.6 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 6.6 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 5.6 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 8.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 38.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 168.4 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | — |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 7.5K |