Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · C40FB001106030228864
C40FB001106030228864
midtail
3P
NAIL ART
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
14
▼ 54.8% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
23
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-14
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-10-14 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 38
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-10-11
C40FB001106030228864
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-10-05 · Total forecast: 181 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
C40FB001106030228864 · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 14 units, trending down -54.8% · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (105 days of history, — units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.64 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 14 units · prev 4w = 31 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 3.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 17.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 44.7 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 21.1 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 13.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 46.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 181.4 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 4.2 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 7.0K |