Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · BW51080B
Piscine gonflable - BESTWAY - Vaisseau Spatial - Asymétrique - Mixte - 157x41 cm
longtail
1P
PISCINE
Last 4 weeks demand
22
▼ 18.5% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
61
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
61
≈ 43.4 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 131
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-07-31
BW51080B
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 156 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Piscine gonflable - BESTWAY - Vaisseau Spatial - Asymétrique - Mixte - 157x41 cm · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 22 units, trending down -18.5% · on-hand 63 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (805 days of history, 53 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.90 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 22 units · prev 4w = 27 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 7.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 26.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 85.0 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 12.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 43.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 155.6 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 4.3 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 20.4K |