Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · BW51080B
Piscine gonflable - BESTWAY - Vaisseau Spatial - Asymétrique - Mixte - 157x41 cm
longtail
1P
PISCINE
Last 4 weeks demand
0
▼ 100.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
50
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
50
≈ 33.8 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-02
Unit price
MAD 114
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-03
BW51080B
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 316 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Piscine gonflable - BESTWAY - Vaisseau Spatial - Asymétrique - Mixte - 157x41 cm · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 0 units, trending down -100.0% · on-hand 50 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (840 days of history, 69 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.90 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 0 units · prev 4w = 6 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 2.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 42.6 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 5.1 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 12.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 44.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 316.2 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 4.6 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 36.1K |