Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · BIO6001159116936
Bio-Oil Huile anti-vergetures - 25 ml
longtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
5
▼ 37.5% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-88.9%
vs same 4w last year (45 units)
Current stock
56
≈ 22.1 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 33
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
BIO6001159116936
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 124 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Bio-Oil Huile anti-vergetures - 25 ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 5 units, trending down -37.5% · on-hand 56 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1162 days of history, 131 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.04 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 5 units · prev 4w = 8 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 2.3 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 11.1 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 36.4 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 7.1 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 33.8 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 124.4 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.8 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 4.2K |