Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · BES6941607343876
Matelas gonflable camping - BESTWAY - 1 place - 185 x 76 x 22 cm
longtail
3P
CAMPING - CAMP DE BASE
Last 4 weeks demand
29
▲ 26.1% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+262.5%
vs same 4w last year (8 units)
Current stock
19
≈ 19.2 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 170
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
BES6941607343876
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 144 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Matelas gonflable camping - BESTWAY - 1 place - 185 x 76 x 22 cm · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 29 units, trending up +26.1% · on-hand 19 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (756 days of history, 72 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.97 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 29 units · prev 4w = 23 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 5.1 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 20.5 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 46.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 10.9 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 49.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 143.7 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.6 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 24.5K |