Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · BES6941607329160
Bouée Gonflable - BESTWAY - Mickey Mouse - Enfant - 48 cm
longtail
1P
JEUX D'EAU - JEUX DE PLAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
0
▼ 100.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
14
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
14
≈ 60.0 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-02
Unit price
MAD 14
avg of last 11 sells · latest 2026-08-17
BES6941607329160
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 87 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Bouée Gonflable - BESTWAY - Mickey Mouse - Enfant - 48 cm · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 0 units, trending down -100.0% · on-hand 14 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (413 days of history, 12 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.50 — low
- Recent trend: last 4w = 0 units · prev 4w = 1 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 0.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 0.9 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 4.3 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 7.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 25.9 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 87.0 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | — |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.2K |