Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AVE3282770208962
Avène Hydrance Légère Émulsion Hydratante 40ml
longtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
1
▼ 66.7% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-66.7%
vs same 4w last year (3 units)
Current stock
773
≈ 860.8 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 147
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-01
AVE3282770208962
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 49 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Avène Hydrance Légère Émulsion Hydratante 40ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 1 units, trending down -66.7% · on-hand 773 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1022 days of history, 36 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.74 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 1 units · prev 4w = 3 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 1.0 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 4.2 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 15.0 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 3.3 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 13.8 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 49.1 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 7.2K |