Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AVE3282770204681
Avène Cicalfate+ Crème Réparatrice Protectrice 100ml
hero
3P
HYGIENE BEBE
Last 4 weeks demand
18
▼ 47.1% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-83.9%
vs same 4w last year (112 units)
Current stock
6,988
≈ 731.4 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 143
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
AVE3282770204681
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 255 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Avène Cicalfate+ Crème Réparatrice Protectrice 100ml · in the hero cohort · last 4 weeks 18 units, trending down -47.1% · on-hand 6988 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: hero (1141 days of history, 433 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.74 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 18 units · prev 4w = 34 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 7.1 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 33.9 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 101.0 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 15.3 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 85.8 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 254.9 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 7.8 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 36.4K |