Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AVE3282770204681
Avène Cicalfate+ Crème Réparatrice Protectrice 100ml
hero
3P
HYGIENE BEBE
Last 4 weeks demand
8
▼ 50.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
9,717
Σ Stock across 8 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-10-02 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 139
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-25
AVE3282770204681
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 210 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Avène Cicalfate+ Crème Réparatrice Protectrice 100ml · in the hero cohort · last 4 weeks 8 units, trending down -50.0% · on-hand 10322 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: hero (1253 days of history, 383 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.79 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 8 units · prev 4w = 16 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.3 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 5.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 91.2 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 13.0 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 7.3 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 33.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 209.5 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 8.3 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 29.0K |