Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AVE3282770204667
Avène Cicalfate+ Crème Réparatrice Protectrice 40ml
midtail
3P
HYGIENE BEBE
Last 4 weeks demand
8
▼ 46.7% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-38.5%
vs same 4w last year (13 units)
Current stock
5,006
≈ 1072.7 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 98
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-08
AVE3282770204667
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 135 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Avène Cicalfate+ Crème Réparatrice Protectrice 40ml · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 8 units, trending down -46.7% · on-hand 5006 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (1169 days of history, 280 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.83 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 8 units · prev 4w = 15 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 3.3 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 15.1 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 46.1 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 8.3 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 40.1 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 135.3 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.5 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 13.3K |