Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AUC9556564800002
CAREX PRESERVATIF CLASSIQUE X3
midtail
3P
SEXUALITE - GROSSESSE
Last 4 weeks demand
12
▼ 74.5% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-81.5%
vs same 4w last year (65 units)
Current stock
2,104
≈ 331.7 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 4
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-06
AUC9556564800002
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 505 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
CAREX PRESERVATIF CLASSIQUE X3 · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 12 units, trending down -74.5% · on-hand 2104 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (1155 days of history, 611 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.40 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 12 units · prev 4w = 47 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 13.1 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 45.8 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 99.7 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 49.1 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 191.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 505.2 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 7.7 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.9K |