Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AUC9556564800002
CAREX PRESERVATIF CLASSIQUE X3
hero
3P
SEXUALITE - GROSSESSE
Last 4 weeks demand
29
▲ 383.3% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
146
Σ Stock across 5 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-10-02 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 4
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-19
AUC9556564800002
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 486 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
CAREX PRESERVATIF CLASSIQUE X3 · in the hero cohort · last 4 weeks 29 units, trending up +383.3% · on-hand 323 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: hero (1260 days of history, 665 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.31 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 29 units · prev 4w = 6 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.6 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 10.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 157.0 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 26.0 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 11.7 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 72.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 486.1 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 7.7 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.7K |