Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AUC8901138506377
Nourrissant Crème Visage Himalaya 50ml
longtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
15
▲ 25.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
22
Σ Stock across 3 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
7
≈ 4.4 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-02
Unit price
MAD 9
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-29
AUC8901138506377
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 99 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Nourrissant Crème Visage Himalaya 50ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 15 units, trending up +25.0% · on-hand 7 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (889 days of history, 124 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.88 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 15 units · prev 4w = 12 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 5.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 33.9 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 14.2 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 7.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 34.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 99.3 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.9 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 863 |