Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AUC8901138506377
Nourrissant Crème Visage Himalaya 50ml
longtail
1P + 3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
11
▼ 64.5% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
57
Σ Stock across 4 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
26
≈ 17.7 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 8
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-07-30
AUC8901138506377
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 80 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Nourrissant Crème Visage Himalaya 50ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 11 units, trending down -64.5% · on-hand 26 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (826 days of history, 103 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.93 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 11 units · prev 4w = 31 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 3.9 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 14.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 42.8 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 6.9 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 26.1 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 80.0 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 665 |