Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AUC8009271030909
Base pratique pour parasol 45x45x18cm - Remplissable - 16 litres - Blanc - Eté - Soleil - Parasol
longtail
1P
AMENAGEMENT EXTERIEUR - DU JARDIN
Last 4 weeks demand
5
new activity (no prior baseline)
Offer Stock
54
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-14
1P stock
54
≈ 562.5 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-14
Unit price
MAD 93
avg of last 11 sells · latest 2026-10-04
AUC8009271030909
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-10-12 · Total forecast: 108 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Base pratique pour parasol 45x45x18cm - Remplissable - 16 litres - Blanc - Eté - Soleil - Parasol · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 5 units, new activity (no prior baseline) · on-hand 54 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (868 days of history, 6 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.65 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 5 units · prev 4w = 0 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 1.6 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 3.1 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 7.1 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 9.1 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 35.9 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 108.0 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | — |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 10.0K |