Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AUC8004395111817
Marvis Dentifrice Menthe Blanchissant Smoker 85ml
midtail
3P
DENTAIRE
Last 4 weeks demand
7
▼ 46.2% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
—
not enough history (need 56+ weeks)
Current stock
2
≈ 0.7 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 193
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
AUC8004395111817
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 106 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Marvis Dentifrice Menthe Blanchissant Smoker 85ml · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 7 units, trending down -46.2% · on-hand 2 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (343 days of history, — units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.68 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 7 units · prev 4w = 13 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 3.0 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 13.0 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 36.8 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 8.4 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 34.2 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 106.0 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.8 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 20.4K |