Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AUC7318826579000
Papier - Multicopy - Visio - A4 - Blanc - 80g - CIE168
longtail
3P
PAPIER - CAHIER - CARNET
Last 4 weeks demand
8
▼ 46.7% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
504
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-14
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-10-14 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 33
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-30
AUC7318826579000
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-10-05 · Total forecast: 48 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Papier - Multicopy - Visio - A4 - Blanc - 80g - CIE168 · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 8 units, trending down -46.7% · on-hand 536 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (889 days of history, 47 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.78 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 8 units · prev 4w = 15 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 2.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 3.1 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 7.7 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 6.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 18.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 47.8 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.5 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.6K |