Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AUC6281001112044
Dentifrice - Colgate - Triple Action - 50ml - Sans parabène - Mixte - Adulte/Enfant
longtail
1P + 3P
DENTAIRE
Last 4 weeks demand
1
▼ 83.3% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
116
Σ Stock across 2 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-14
1P stock
59
≈ 97.4 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-14
Unit price
MAD 8
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-25
AUC6281001112044
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-10-05 · Total forecast: 36 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Dentifrice - Colgate - Triple Action - 50ml - Sans parabène - Mixte - Adulte/Enfant · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 1 units, trending down -83.3% · on-hand 59 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (721 days of history, 30 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.90 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 1 units · prev 4w = 6 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 0.3 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 0.4 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 3.4 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 2.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 10.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 35.8 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.3 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 301 |