Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AUC6118000010029
KENTA POMMADE 30G
longtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
7
▼ 61.1% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+0.0%
vs same 4w last year (7 units)
Current stock
3,392
≈ 1373.6 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 12
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-03
AUC6118000010029
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 164 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
KENTA POMMADE 30G · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 7 units, trending down -61.1% · on-hand 3392 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1141 days of history, 242 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.53 — high (lumpy)
- Recent trend: last 4w = 7 units · prev 4w = 18 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 3.2 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 15.7 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 44.2 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 10.7 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 53.1 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 163.8 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.4 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 2.0K |