Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AUC6111252930022
Eristop 40 Crème De Change 65 Gr
longtail
3P
HYGIENE BEBE
Last 4 weeks demand
4
▼ 20.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
570
Σ Stock across 2 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-08-05 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 41
avg of last 28 sells · latest 2026-07-24
AUC6111252930022
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 71 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Eristop 40 Crème De Change 65 Gr · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 4 units, trending down -20.0% · on-hand 642 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1078 days of history, 27 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.72 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 4 units · prev 4w = 5 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 2.4 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 9.6 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 34.7 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 4.6 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 19.3 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 70.7 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.6 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 2.9K |