Demand Forecast

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NaturEsoin Huile d'Amandes Douces - 50 ml
SKU · AUC6111246208038

NaturEsoin Huile d'Amandes Douces - 50 ml

longtail 3P CAPILLAIRE
Open on marjanemall.ma

Last 4 weeks demand

6
▼ 45.5% vs prev 4w

Year-over-year

+50.0%
vs same 4w last year (4 units)

Current stock

1,632
≈ 687.2 weeks of cover

Unit price

MAD 19
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-04

AUC6111246208038

History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU. Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 76 units.
Actual Forecast p50 (expected) Forecast p95 (upper bound)

Price history

Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?

NaturEsoin Huile d'Amandes Douces - 50 ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 6 units, trending down -45.5% · on-hand 1632 units

Signals the model saw

  • Cohort: longtail (1057 days of history, 151 units sold over 52 weeks)
  • Volatility (CV): 0.66 — moderate
  • Recent trend: last 4w = 6 units · prev 4w = 11 units
  • Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
  • Calendar events firing in forecast window: none

Model output

Realistic (p50) — next week2.1 units
Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks8.9 units
Realistic (p50) — next 3 months26.4 units
Optimistic (p95) — next week5.8 units
Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target)27.1 units
Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target)76.3 units
Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline)2.0
Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months MAD 1.4K