Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AUC6111246207550
NaturEsoin Neobacter Savon Antiseptique - 90 G
longtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
3
▼ 50.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
10
Σ Stock across 2 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-08-05 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 8
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-07-22
AUC6111246207550
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 67 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
NaturEsoin Neobacter Savon Antiseptique - 90 G · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 3 units, trending down -50.0% · on-hand 18 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1225 days of history, 134 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.88 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 3 units · prev 4w = 6 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): 2 weeks → past demand likely understated
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.8 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 8.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 31.6 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 3.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 18.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 66.8 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.4 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 546 |