Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AUC5984254345290
Derma Roller - Derma Roller - 0.5 mm - 540 aiguilles - Stimule repousse cheveux - Anti-âge
hero
3P
CAPILLAIRE
Last 4 weeks demand
3
new activity (no prior baseline)
Offer Stock
870
Σ Stock across 2 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-10-02 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 13
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-28
AUC5984254345290
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 202 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Derma Roller - Derma Roller - 0.5 mm - 540 aiguilles - Stimule repousse cheveux - Anti-âge · in the hero cohort · last 4 weeks 3 units, new activity (no prior baseline) · on-hand 870 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: hero (889 days of history, 201 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.17 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 3 units · prev 4w = 0 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 0.4 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 62.2 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 4.0 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 4.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 23.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 202.3 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 4.0 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 2.6K |