Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AUC5984254345290
Derma Roller - Derma Roller - 0.5 mm - 540 aiguilles - Stimule repousse cheveux - Anti-âge
hero
3P
CAPILLAIRE
Last 4 weeks demand
1
≈ stable (0.0% vs prev 4w)
Year-over-year
-96.4%
vs same 4w last year (28 units)
Current stock
876
≈ 104.1 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 13
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-04-21
AUC5984254345290
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 268 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Derma Roller - Derma Roller - 0.5 mm - 540 aiguilles - Stimule repousse cheveux - Anti-âge · in the hero cohort · last 4 weeks 1 units, stable demand · on-hand 876 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: hero (770 days of history, 309 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.13 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 1 units · prev 4w = 1 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 3.3 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 16.4 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 65.2 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 11.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 69.9 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 268.0 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 5.0 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 3.5K |