Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AUC5440545501160
Appareil Chauffe Cire - Professionnel - 100ml - Cire Chaude - Non Comédogène - Mixte
longtail
3P
BEAUTE - BIEN-ETRE
Last 4 weeks demand
1
▼ 75.0% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-96.9%
vs same 4w last year (32 units)
Current stock
926
≈ 513.5 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 35
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
AUC5440545501160
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 53 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Appareil Chauffe Cire - Professionnel - 100ml - Cire Chaude - Non Comédogène - Mixte · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 1 units, trending down -75.0% · on-hand 926 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (882 days of history, 90 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.82 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 1 units · prev 4w = 4 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 1.0 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 4.1 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 14.2 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 3.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 14.4 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 52.7 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.8K |