Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AUC5425010090028
Feuilles à Manger - PaperMints - Original - Sans Sucre - 24 Feuilles - Menthe Fraîcheur
longtail
3P
DENTAIRE
Last 4 weeks demand
5
▲ 400.0% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-78.3%
vs same 4w last year (23 units)
Current stock
394
≈ 200.2 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 24
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-04-27
AUC5425010090028
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 119 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Feuilles à Manger - PaperMints - Original - Sans Sucre - 24 Feuilles - Menthe Fraîcheur · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 5 units, trending up +400.0% · on-hand 394 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (868 days of history, 121 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.75 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 5 units · prev 4w = 1 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 2.0 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 8.6 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 29.9 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 5.6 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 28.6 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 119.3 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.3 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 2.9K |