Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AUC5425010090028
Feuilles à Manger - PaperMints - Original - Sans Sucre - 24 Feuilles - Menthe Fraîcheur
longtail
3P
DENTAIRE
Last 4 weeks demand
1
▼ 50.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
96
Σ Stock across 5 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-10-02 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 23
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-17
AUC5425010090028
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 27 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Feuilles à Manger - PaperMints - Original - Sans Sucre - 24 Feuilles - Menthe Fraîcheur · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 1 units, trending down -50.0% · on-hand 472 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (973 days of history, 66 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.79 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 1 units · prev 4w = 2 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): 3 weeks → past demand likely understated
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 0.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 3.3 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 1.5 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 2.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 12.7 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 27.0 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 630 |