Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AUC5060565101418
Revox 30ml Juste Vitamine C 20%, Sérum Visage
hero
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
45
▼ 38.4% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+1025.0%
vs same 4w last year (4 units)
Current stock
29
≈ 2.6 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 74
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-08
AUC5060565101418
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 382 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Revox 30ml Juste Vitamine C 20%, Sérum Visage · in the hero cohort · last 4 weeks 45 units, trending down -38.4% · on-hand 29 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: hero (1183 days of history, 772 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.23 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 45 units · prev 4w = 73 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 14.9 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 54.1 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 142.9 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 30.1 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 133.4 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 381.6 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 11.0 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 28.2K |