Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AUC5060565101418
Revox 30ml Juste Vitamine C 20%, Sérum Visage
hero
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
29
▼ 25.6% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
84
Σ Stock across 4 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-10-02 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 70
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-27
AUC5060565101418
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 692 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Revox 30ml Juste Vitamine C 20%, Sérum Visage · in the hero cohort · last 4 weeks 29 units, trending down -25.6% · on-hand 133 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: hero (1288 days of history, 728 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.21 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 29 units · prev 4w = 39 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.9 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 10.4 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 215.4 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 28.3 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 13.9 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 103.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 692.1 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 11.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 48.2K |