Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AUC5060565101364
Revox 30ml Juste Niacinamide 10%, Sérum Visage
midtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
22
▼ 26.7% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
128
Σ Stock across 4 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-08-05 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 68
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-08-02
AUC5060565101364
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 367 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Revox 30ml Juste Niacinamide 10%, Sérum Visage · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 22 units, trending down -26.7% · on-hand 149 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (1232 days of history, 400 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.91 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 22 units · prev 4w = 30 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 9.6 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 42.6 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 191.2 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 14.7 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 70.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 366.7 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 9.4 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 24.9K |