Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AUC5010724526798
Shampoing Sec Cherry - 200 ml
longtail
3P
CAPILLAIRE
Last 4 weeks demand
1
▼ 83.3% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
38
Σ Stock across 6 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
18
≈ 13.1 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-02
Unit price
MAD 52
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-10
AUC5010724526798
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 88 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Shampoing Sec Cherry - 200 ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 1 units, trending down -83.3% · on-hand 18 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1183 days of history, 102 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.02 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 1 units · prev 4w = 6 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.5 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 3.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 23.4 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 8.9 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 5.3 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 26.3 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 87.7 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.0 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 4.6K |