Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AUC4250587723779
Catrice Yeux Lash Brow Designer Gel Fixant Cils et Sourcils 6ml
longtail
3P
MAQUILLAGE VISAGE - CORPS
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
4
▼ 20.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
0
no live offers
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the latest snapshot
Unit price
MAD 33
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-07-28
AUC4250587723779
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 53 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Catrice Yeux Lash Brow Designer Gel Fixant Cils et Sourcils 6ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 4 units, trending down -20.0% · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1127 days of history, 28 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.59 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 4 units · prev 4w = 5 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 6.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 24.9 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 3.1 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 13.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 52.6 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | — |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.7K |