Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AUC4250338443772
Essence Soin des Ongles Séchage Express Vernis 8ml
longtail
3P
ONGLERIE
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
1
▼ 50.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
0
Σ Stock across 6 live offers
1P stock
0
not in latest 1P warehouse snapshot
Unit price
MAD 22
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-04-20
AUC4250338443772
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 52 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Essence Soin des Ongles Séchage Express Vernis 8ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 1 units, trending down -50.0% · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1092 days of history, 36 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.48 — low
- Recent trend: last 4w = 1 units · prev 4w = 2 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 4.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 15.8 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 3.1 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 13.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 51.5 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | — |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.2K |