Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AUC4059729302809
Essence Gloss Extreme Shine Volume N°01 Crystal Clear 5ml
midtail
3P
MAQUILLAGE VISAGE - CORPS
Last 4 weeks demand
8
▼ 52.9% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-83.3%
vs same 4w last year (48 units)
Current stock
15
≈ 3.1 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 20
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
AUC4059729302809
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 207 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Essence Gloss Extreme Shine Volume N°01 Crystal Clear 5ml · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 8 units, trending down -52.9% · on-hand 15 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (1106 days of history, 258 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.86 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 8 units · prev 4w = 17 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 3.8 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 18.4 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 52.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 11.3 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 60.3 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 206.7 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 4.0 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 4.1K |