Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AUC4059729302809
Essence Gloss Extreme Shine Volume N°01 Crystal Clear 5ml
midtail
3P
MAQUILLAGE VISAGE - CORPS
Last 4 weeks demand
17
▼ 29.2% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
10
Σ Stock across 2 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-08-05 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 21
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-08-01
AUC4059729302809
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 283 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Essence Gloss Extreme Shine Volume N°01 Crystal Clear 5ml · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 17 units, trending down -29.2% · on-hand 13 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (1162 days of history, 247 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.85 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 17 units · prev 4w = 24 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 9.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 34.9 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 132.6 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 15.1 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 62.7 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 283.4 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 6.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 6.0K |