Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AUC4058900008004
Ernst Richter's Tisane Boite de 20 sachets
hero
3P
COMPLEMENTS ALIMENTAIRES - THE INFUSION
Last 4 weeks demand
4
▼ 76.5% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
4,604
Σ Stock across 3 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-08-05 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 52
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-07-27
AUC4058900008004
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 349 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Ernst Richter's Tisane Boite de 20 sachets · in the hero cohort · last 4 weeks 4 units, trending down -76.5% · on-hand 4716 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: hero (1169 days of history, 660 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.35 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 4 units · prev 4w = 17 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): 1 week → past demand likely understated
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 4.4 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 21.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 123.3 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 9.9 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 50.7 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 349.1 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 4.6 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 18.0K |