Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AUC4058900008004
Ernst Richter's Tisane Boite de 20 sachets
hero
3P
COMPLEMENTS ALIMENTAIRES - THE INFUSION
Last 4 weeks demand
21
▼ 65.6% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-82.2%
vs same 4w last year (118 units)
Current stock
3,212
≈ 214.0 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 52
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-06
AUC4058900008004
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 311 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Ernst Richter's Tisane Boite de 20 sachets · in the hero cohort · last 4 weeks 21 units, trending down -65.6% · on-hand 3212 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: hero (1113 days of history, 723 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.32 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 21 units · prev 4w = 61 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 5.8 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 29.9 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 81.3 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 19.0 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 100.2 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 310.9 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 6.3 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 16.0K |