Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AUC4058900008004
Ernst Richter's Tisane Boite de 20 sachets
hero
3P
COMPLEMENTS ALIMENTAIRES - THE INFUSION
Last 4 weeks demand
15
▼ 28.6% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
5,179
Σ Stock across 8 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-10-02 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 44
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-28
AUC4058900008004
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 626 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Ernst Richter's Tisane Boite de 20 sachets · in the hero cohort · last 4 weeks 15 units, trending down -28.6% · on-hand 5287 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: hero (1232 days of history, 585 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.37 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 15 units · prev 4w = 21 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): 2 weeks → past demand likely understated
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.3 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 7.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 201.4 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 19.5 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 13.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 72.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 626.1 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 10.0 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 27.8K |