Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AUC4005800295003
Sérum Triple Action Eucerin DermoPure 40ml - Anti-marques, Anti-imperfections, Anti-brillance
longtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
0
▼ 100.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
125
Σ Stock across 4 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-14
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-10-14 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 159
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-12
AUC4005800295003
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-10-05 · Total forecast: 36 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Sérum Triple Action Eucerin DermoPure 40ml - Anti-marques, Anti-imperfections, Anti-brillance · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 0 units, trending down -100.0% · on-hand 139 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1022 days of history, 33 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.98 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 0 units · prev 4w = 4 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 3.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 9.7 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 3.6 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 2.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 9.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 36.3 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.0 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 5.8K |