Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AUC4005800238963
Fluide Solaire - Eucerin - SPF50+ - 50ml - Protection UVA/UVB - Anti-taches brunes
hero
3P
SOLAIRES
Last 4 weeks demand
35
▼ 25.5% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-87.1%
vs same 4w last year (272 units)
Current stock
119
≈ 9.7 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 152
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
AUC4005800238963
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 376 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Fluide Solaire - Eucerin - SPF50+ - 50ml - Protection UVA/UVB - Anti-taches brunes · in the hero cohort · last 4 weeks 35 units, trending down -25.5% · on-hand 119 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: hero (1141 days of history, 378 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.40 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 35 units · prev 4w = 47 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 12.9 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 49.1 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 132.6 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 22.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 121.2 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 375.6 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 10.2 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 56.9K |