Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AUC3600542510080
Masque capillaire - Garnier - Ultra Doux - Nutrition Intense - Avocat - Karité 340ml
longtail
1P + 3P
CAPILLAIRE
Last 4 weeks demand
4
▼ 63.6% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
88
Σ Stock across 5 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
12
≈ 7.2 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 66
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-08-02
AUC3600542510080
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 71 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Masque capillaire - Garnier - Ultra Doux - Nutrition Intense - Avocat - Karité 340ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 4 units, trending down -63.6% · on-hand 12 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (819 days of history, 114 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.82 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 4 units · prev 4w = 11 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): 3 weeks → past demand likely understated
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 3.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 12.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 37.8 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 5.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 22.7 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 71.4 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.9 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 4.7K |