Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AUC3600542510080
Masque capillaire - Garnier - Ultra Doux - Nutrition Intense - Avocat - Karité 340ml
longtail
3P
CAPILLAIRE
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
6
▼ 45.5% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
37
Σ Stock across 6 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-10-02 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 63
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-28
AUC3600542510080
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 99 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Masque capillaire - Garnier - Ultra Doux - Nutrition Intense - Avocat - Karité 340ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 6 units, trending down -45.5% · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (882 days of history, 107 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.79 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 6 units · prev 4w = 11 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): 3 weeks → past demand likely understated
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 4.6 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 33.2 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 10.6 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 6.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 31.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 99.0 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.0 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 6.2K |