Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AUC3600542509367
Masque Capillaire - Garnier - Ultra Doux - Trésors de Miel - 340ml - Cheveux Cassants
hero
1P
CAPILLAIRE
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
12
▼ 50.0% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-83.8%
vs same 4w last year (74 units)
Current stock
0
depleted
Unit price
MAD 62
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
AUC3600542509367
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 247 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Masque Capillaire - Garnier - Ultra Doux - Trésors de Miel - 340ml - Cheveux Cassants · in the hero cohort · last 4 weeks 12 units, trending down -50.0% · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: hero (973 days of history, 488 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.91 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 12 units · prev 4w = 24 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 8.3 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 29.1 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 81.9 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 16.6 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 76.2 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 246.6 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 6.3 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 15.3K |