Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AUC3600542509367
Masque Capillaire - Garnier - Ultra Doux - Trésors de Miel - 340ml - Cheveux Cassants
hero
3P
CAPILLAIRE
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
6
▼ 68.4% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
119
Σ Stock across 4 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-08-05 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 60
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-07-31
AUC3600542509367
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 292 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Masque Capillaire - Garnier - Ultra Doux - Trésors de Miel - 340ml - Cheveux Cassants · in the hero cohort · last 4 weeks 6 units, trending down -68.4% · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: hero (1029 days of history, 376 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.93 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 6 units · prev 4w = 19 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 5.6 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 24.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 123.9 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 10.1 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 51.3 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 292.4 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 5.3 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 17.7K |