Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AUC3600542509367
Masque Capillaire - Garnier - Ultra Doux - Trésors de Miel - 340ml - Cheveux Cassants
hero
1P + 3P
CAPILLAIRE
Last 4 weeks demand
8
▲ 60.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
286
Σ Stock across 5 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
120
≈ 14.1 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-02
Unit price
MAD 62
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-22
AUC3600542509367
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 399 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Masque Capillaire - Garnier - Ultra Doux - Trésors de Miel - 340ml - Cheveux Cassants · in the hero cohort · last 4 weeks 8 units, trending up +60.0% · on-hand 120 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: hero (1085 days of history, 310 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.96 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 8 units · prev 4w = 5 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 4.6 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 121.5 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 10.2 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 10.6 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 45.1 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 398.9 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 6.6 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 24.5K |