Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AUC3600531609771
Gloss à Lèvres - Maybelline New York - N°03 Moon - 5,4ml - Hydratation - Effet Repulpant
midtail
3P
MAQUILLAGE VISAGE - CORPS
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
1
new activity (no prior baseline)
Offer Stock
4
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-10-02 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 84
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-14
AUC3600531609771
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 123 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Gloss à Lèvres - Maybelline New York - N°03 Moon - 5,4ml - Hydratation - Effet Repulpant · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 1 units, new activity (no prior baseline) · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (1239 days of history, 75 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.00 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 1 units · prev 4w = 0 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 0.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 28.0 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 1.7 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 5.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 28.3 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 122.8 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.4 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 10.3K |