Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AUC3600524074784
L'Oréal Paris Elsève Pro Bond Repair Démêlant Intense - 150ml
midtail
3P
CAPILLAIRE
Last 4 weeks demand
9
▼ 57.1% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
60
Σ Stock across 4 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
30
≈ 5.6 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-02
Unit price
MAD 68
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-28
AUC3600524074784
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 218 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
L'Oréal Paris Elsève Pro Bond Repair Démêlant Intense - 150ml · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 9 units, trending down -57.1% · on-hand 30 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (959 days of history, 258 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.73 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 9 units · prev 4w = 21 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.6 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 5.9 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 65.3 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 16.6 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 13.7 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 48.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 218.4 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.9 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 14.8K |