Demand Forecast

Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
Back to category view
Gel douche Magnesium L'OREAL PARIS - Defense Hypoallergénique 0% - 300 ml
SKU · AUC3600524030124

Gel douche Magnesium L'OREAL PARIS - Defense Hypoallergénique 0% - 300 ml

longtail 1P CORPS ET VISAGE
Open on marjanemall.ma

Last 4 weeks demand

8
▼ 20.0% vs prev 4w

Year-over-year

-72.4%
vs same 4w last year (29 units)

Current stock

5
≈ 1.9 weeks of cover

Unit price

MAD 29
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-06

AUC3600524030124

History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU. Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 115 units.
Actual Forecast p50 (expected) Forecast p95 (upper bound)

Price history

Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?

Gel douche Magnesium L'OREAL PARIS - Defense Hypoallergénique 0% - 300 ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 8 units, trending down -20.0% · on-hand 5 units

Signals the model saw

  • Cohort: longtail (553 days of history, 144 units sold over 52 weeks)
  • Volatility (CV): 1.51 — high (lumpy)
  • Recent trend: last 4w = 8 units · prev 4w = 10 units
  • Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
  • Calendar events firing in forecast window: none

Model output

Realistic (p50) — next week2.3 units
Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks10.9 units
Realistic (p50) — next 3 months33.7 units
Optimistic (p95) — next week6.5 units
Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target)30.9 units
Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target)114.9 units
Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline)2.6
Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months MAD 3.3K