Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AUC3574661489087
Crème Solaire - SoleilBiafine - SPF50+ - Hypoallergénique - Résistant à l'eau - 150 ml
midtail
3P
SOLAIRES
Last 4 weeks demand
55
▼ 11.3% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+52.8%
vs same 4w last year (36 units)
Current stock
312
≈ 87.1 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 93
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
AUC3574661489087
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 216 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Crème Solaire - SoleilBiafine - SPF50+ - Hypoallergénique - Résistant à l'eau - 150 ml · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 55 units, trending down -11.3% · on-hand 312 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (1134 days of history, 407 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.91 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 55 units · prev 4w = 62 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 10.4 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 36.4 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 82.0 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 19.8 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 87.0 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 216.3 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 6.3 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 20.0K |