Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AUC3549620008548
Le Petit Olivier Soin Réparateur Baume de Soin Sans Rinçage 200ml
longtail
3P
CAPILLAIRE
Last 4 weeks demand
3
▼ 75.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
87
Σ Stock across 5 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
8
≈ 7.8 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-02
Unit price
MAD 71
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-25
AUC3549620008548
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 54 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Le Petit Olivier Soin Réparateur Baume de Soin Sans Rinçage 200ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 3 units, trending down -75.0% · on-hand 8 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1190 days of history, 72 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.62 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 3 units · prev 4w = 12 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 0.4 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 10.4 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 4.3 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 4.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 16.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 54.1 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.3 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 3.9K |