Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AUC3549620008517
Le Petit Olivier Soin Réparateur Shampooing Baume 250ml
midtail
1P
CAPILLAIRE
Last 4 weeks demand
13
▼ 31.6% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-13.3%
vs same 4w last year (15 units)
Current stock
5
≈ 1.6 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 57
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
AUC3549620008517
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 125 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Le Petit Olivier Soin Réparateur Shampooing Baume 250ml · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 13 units, trending down -31.6% · on-hand 5 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (1064 days of history, 268 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.80 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 13 units · prev 4w = 19 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 3.8 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 15.2 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 39.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 9.7 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 42.6 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 125.2 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.0 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 7.1K |