Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AUC3401373973026
Saforelle Soin & Hygiène Soin Lavant Doux 100ml
longtail
3P
HYGIENE INTIME
Last 4 weeks demand
11
▲ 37.5% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+57.1%
vs same 4w last year (7 units)
Current stock
533
≈ 318.0 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 36
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
AUC3401373973026
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 69 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Saforelle Soin & Hygiène Soin Lavant Doux 100ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 11 units, trending up +37.5% · on-hand 533 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (728 days of history, 116 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.68 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 11 units · prev 4w = 8 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 2.1 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 8.8 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 26.7 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 5.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 22.1 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 69.0 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 2.5K |