Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AUC3337875597227
Cerave+Crème hydratante pour peaux sèches et très sèches 340 ml de crème
midtail
1P + 3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
8
▼ 11.1% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
70
Σ Stock across 6 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
9
≈ 1.7 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-02
Unit price
MAD 117
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-28
AUC3337875597227
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 174 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Cerave+Crème hydratante pour peaux sèches et très sèches 340 ml de crème · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 8 units, trending down -11.1% · on-hand 9 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (1225 days of history, 374 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.71 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 8 units · prev 4w = 9 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.3 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 6.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 45.9 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 17.1 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 13.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 56.7 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 174.4 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 4.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 20.5K |