Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AUC3337875597227
Cerave+Crème hydratante pour peaux sèches et très sèches 340 ml de crème
midtail
1P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
16
▼ 69.2% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+45.5%
vs same 4w last year (11 units)
Current stock
30
≈ 5.5 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 119
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
AUC3337875597227
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 169 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Cerave+Crème hydratante pour peaux sèches et très sèches 340 ml de crème · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 16 units, trending down -69.2% · on-hand 30 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (1106 days of history, 391 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.70 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 16 units · prev 4w = 52 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 8.8 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 32.5 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 78.2 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 17.0 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 70.4 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 169.2 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | — |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 20.1K |