Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AUC3337872411083
NETTOYANT VISAGE - LA ROCHE-POSAY - EFFACLAR - 200 ml - Hypoallergénique - Tous types de peau
longtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
9
▼ 30.8% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
399
Σ Stock across 3 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
1
≈ 0.7 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-02
Unit price
MAD 146
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-27
AUC3337872411083
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 143 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
NETTOYANT VISAGE - LA ROCHE-POSAY - EFFACLAR - 200 ml - Hypoallergénique - Tous types de peau · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 9 units, trending down -30.8% · on-hand 1 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1274 days of history, 161 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.74 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 9 units · prev 4w = 13 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): 1 week → past demand likely understated
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 4.8 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 53.4 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 12.9 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 7.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 32.9 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 143.2 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.2 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 20.9K |