Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AUC3337872411083
NETTOYANT VISAGE - LA ROCHE-POSAY - EFFACLAR - 200 ml - Hypoallergénique - Tous types de peau
longtail
1P + 3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
9
▼ 35.7% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
22
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
22
≈ 17.5 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 133
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-08-02
AUC3337872411083
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 81 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
NETTOYANT VISAGE - LA ROCHE-POSAY - EFFACLAR - 200 ml - Hypoallergénique - Tous types de peau · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 9 units, trending down -35.7% · on-hand 22 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1218 days of history, 142 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.78 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 9 units · prev 4w = 14 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): 2 weeks → past demand likely understated
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 4.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 14.9 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 44.3 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 6.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 25.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 80.6 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.2 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 10.7K |